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Wednesday, July 28 2021

 

Rob B & Dean N

I think we can all agree that the trend is your friend. Trading with the trend (especially combined with PSR - Position, Situational Awareness and Risk Management), almost certainly assures a trader of a 50%+ win rate over a substantial sample size (we recommend 250+ simulated trades before trading with live money).

What if we could take the first hour of trading (NYSE open at 9:30 am EST - 10:30 am EST), draw a box around the high and the low during that hour, and use that as a gauge to go long or short?

Well guess what? We can and do at FNL!

Thanks to one of our fabulous traders, Randy S, who learned this strat from Scott Andrews, an accomplished trader, we now use this First Hour Box to help us with direction, and we can use the box to help us with entries and exits for the rest of the day.

Let’s take a look at a First Hour Box.

 

We don’t wait until the hour is up to draw our box.  As soon as we reach a “higher high” and “lower low,” we start drawing the box.  We adjust it (both up and down) as the price action changes throughout that first hour.  We “lock it in” at 10:30 am ET.

In this example the price action within the first hour gives us a 10-point range. 

We have our high and low price action in our box, so we will be using that to help us determine the direction of our trading. 

What is our Trend AFTER Opening Bell? 

 

When price action CLOSES outside of our box to the topside we look to go LONG.  When PA CLOSES outside of our box to the downside we look to go SHORT. 

The first aspect of our One Hour Box is determining which DIRECTION to trade.  This is just a confirmation of what we already know with evaluating a trend of Higher Highs in an Up Trend and Lower Lows in a Down Trend.   Stay tuned for Part 2, using First Hour Box on entries and exits in your trades!

By Rob B & Dean N

Posted by: Rob B AT 09:16 am   |  Permalink   |  2 Comments  |  Email
Comments:
Excellent concise and clear explanation, guys. Actionable information I can factor in every day. Thanks
Posted by Timothy Alan Moore on 07/29/2021 - 08:48 PM
Nicely done, I have been watching this but now I will add this to my list of tools. Thank you,
Posted by Bill Yaeger on 09/09/2021 - 07:13 AM

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Visit David Jeffries FNL Blog Site

Don’t take life so seriously, no one gets out alive!

My picture taking hat.

 

"At some point, you will find your life is changing and you have to roll with the punches or get knocked around pretty badly as the waves of time get rough and rougher.

Getting younger is not an option. Getting old is the best option, but it comes with conditions. (read the fine print:)

When that time comes, look at what we do here in the FNL trading group and understand it is a chance to start over and start bigger than ever. If you want to earn extra money or re-start your career with  great pay increase, then you can learn how with an awesome group of people that are committed to each other and learn together.  On patrol or on deployment; a battle buddy or your patrol partner is a must. We recommend one for trading also." -David Jeffries, TX